NEM · Probabilistic forecasting

Five regions.
Every dispatch cycle.
The full distribution.

42watts forecasts NEM spot prices 24 hours ahead at five-minute resolution — as a calibrated correction over AEMO's own P5MIN and pre-dispatch forecasts. Quantiles q10 through q90, not a single number.

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Live across NSW · QLD · SA · VIC · TAS at 5-minute resolution
NSW1 · 24h forecastLive
18:30▲ PEAKq50 $148 /MWh
03:30▼ TROUGHq50 $32 /MWh
Grounded in AEMO NEMWEBP5MINPREDISPATCHDISPATCHISOpen-Meteo
5
NEM regions forecast end to end, every cycle
5 min
Re-issued on every P5MIN and pre-dispatch run
24 h
Probabilistic horizon — q10 through q90
How it works

Ingest. Correct. Serve.

A five-minute loop that turns AEMO's raw dispatch data into a calibrated view of the next 24 hours — with provenance at every step.

01 · INGEST

Read NEMWEB

Every P5MIN, PREDISPATCH and DISPATCHIS file AEMO publishes lands immutably in R2, parsed at five-minute cadence with a full audit trail.

02 · CORRECT

Predict the residual

Three tiered models — NEAR, MID and FAR — learn the error in AEMO's own forecast and emit calibrated quantiles for every 5-minute interval.

03 · SERVE

Deliver over the API

Quantiles and correlation-preserving scenario paths stream from the /v1 API — each row traceable back through its ingestion run to the source artifact.

Forecast tiers

Three horizons, one distribution.

A separate model per horizon, blended most-recent-issuance-wins at every 5-minute target interval.

NEAR
Next 2.5 hours
SIGNAL · P5MIN
Issued every 5 minutes, triggered by each P5MIN dispatch run. Tightest horizon with the freshest AEMO dispatch signal.
Every dispatch run · 30 intervals
→
MID
2 – 6.5 hours
SIGNAL · PREDISPATCH
Issued every 30 minutes on PREDISPATCH completion. Bridges intra-day uncertainty across the afternoon ramp and evening peak.
Every PREDISPATCH run · 54 intervals
→
FAR
6 – 24 hours
SIGNAL · PREDISPATCH
Issued on a 2-hour minimum cadence. Full day-ahead horizon — overnight trough, next morning peak, and the settlement window.
2-hour minimum · 216 intervals

Outputs are residuals over AEMO's own P5MIN and pre-dispatch baselines — the model predicts the error in AEMO's forecast, not the absolute price. Evaluation reports against both PRELIM and FINAL revisions.

Battery & EV scheduling

Turn the forecast into a plan you can act on.

The same 24-hour distribution, turned into a schedule. Describe what you drive and store, and 42watts places every charge and discharge into the cheapest and dearest five-minute intervals — then settles yesterday’s plan against the prices that actually cleared, so you can see what it did rather than what it promised.

01 · DESCRIBE

Your car and battery

Pick from an Australian catalog of EVs and home batteries — or enter custom specs. We derive the kWh and kW from your weekly distance and capacity, and never charge the car while it's away from home.

02 · PLAN

A plan for every rhythm

Keep separate plans for weekdays, weekends and seasons. Each runs only on the days you choose, at the NEM time you pick — charging into the cheapest intervals and discharging into the priciest across the next 24 hours.

03 · DELIVER

Today's plan in your inbox

Each morning you get today’s charge and discharge windows by email, with yesterday settled against the actual cleared prices — per device, planned against realised.

Every plan is computed twice — on our forecast and on AEMO’s latest pre-dispatch — and both are settled on the prices that actually cleared. That comparison is aforecast benchmark, not a saving: the same optimiser runs on both price paths, so it isolates the gap between two forecasts, and across 1,820 region-days that gap averages near zero. What a scheduled battery is worth comes from the battery and the optimiser — not from whose forecast feeds them. Available on the Pro plan.

Build a plan →

See where AEMO's forecast misses.

Request access to the 42watts forecast API — free through evaluation.

Request access →Open the console →