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NEM Electricity · Probabilistic Forecasting

Five regions.
Every dispatch cycle.
Full distribution.

24h-ahead probabilistic price forecasts for all five NEM regions at 5-minute resolution — issued every P5MIN and pre-dispatch cycle as a residual correction over AEMO's own forecast.

NSW · QLD · SA · VIC · TAS 5-min intervals 24h horizon q10 → q90 quantiles
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NSW1 — New South Wales
NEAR · MID · FAR · 24h horizon
Live Demo
Actual (PRELIM)
q50
q25–q75
q10–q90
How the forecast tiers work
NEAR
Next 2.5 hours
P5MIN
Issued every 5 minutes, triggered by each P5MIN dispatch run. Tightest horizon with the freshest AEMO dispatch signal.
Trigger: every dispatch run · 30 intervals
→
MID
2 – 6.5 hours
PREDISPATCH
Issued every 30 minutes on PREDISPATCH completion. Bridges intra-day uncertainty across the afternoon ramp and evening peak.
Trigger: every PREDISPATCH run · 54 intervals
→
FAR
6 – 24 hours
PREDISPATCH
Issued on a 2-hour minimum cadence. Full day-ahead horizon — covers overnight trough, next morning peak, and settlement window.
Trigger: 2-hour minimum · 216 intervals

Most-recent-issuance wins at each 5-minute target interval. Outputs are residuals over AEMO's own P5MIN and pre-dispatch baselines — the model predicts the error in AEMO's forecast, not the absolute price.